Spatial distribution and temporal trends of tuberculosis case notifications, Uganda: a ten-year retrospective analysis (2013-2022).

BACKGROUND: Uganda has a high incidence and prevalence of tuberculosis (TB). Analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of TB is an important tool for supporting spatial decision-making, planning, and policy formulations; however, this information is not readily available in Uganda. We determined the spatial distribution and temporal trends of tuberculosis notifications in Uganda, 2013-2022. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of routinely-generated program data reported through the National TB and Leprosy Programme (NTLP) surveillance system. We abstracted data on all TB cases diagnosed from 2013 to 2022 by district and region. We drew choropleth maps for Uganda showing the TB case notification rates (CNR) per 100,000 and calculated the CNR using the cases per district as the numerator and individual district populations as the denominators. Population estimates were obtained from the 2014 National Population and Housing Census, and a national growth rate of 3% was used to estimate the annual population increase. RESULTS: Over the entire study period, 568,957 cases of TB were reported in Uganda. There was a 6% annual increase in TB CNR reported from 2013 (134/100,000) to 2022 (213/100,000) (p-value for trend p < 0.00001). Cases were reported from all 12 Ministry of Health regions during the entire period. The distribution of CNR was heterogeneous throughout the country and over time. Moroto, Napak and Kampala districts had consistently high CNR throughout the ten years. Kalangala district had lower CNR from 2013 to 2018 but high CNR from 2019 to 2022. Moroto region, in the northeast, had consistently high CNR while Mbale and Soroti regions in Eastern Uganda had the lowest CNR throughout the ten years. CONCLUSION: There was an overall increasing trend in TB CNR from 2013 to 2022. We recommend that the National TB program institutes intensified measures aided by more funding to mitigate and reverse the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB.

Spatial distribution and temporal trends of leprosy in Uganda, 2012-2016: a retrospective analysis of public health surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is a neglected disease that poses a significant challenge to public health in Uganda. The disease is endemic in Uganda, with 40% of the districts in the country affected in 2016, when 42 out of 112 districts notified the National Tuberculosis and Leprosy Program (NTLP) of at least one case of leprosy. We determined the spatial and temporal trends of leprosy in Uganda during 2012-2016 to inform control measures. METHODS: We analyzed quarterly leprosy case-finding data, reported from districts to the Uganda National Leprosy Surveillance system (managed by NTLP) during 2012-2016. We calculated new case detection by reporting district and administrative regions of treatment during this period. New case detection was defined as new leprosy cases diagnosed by the Uganda health services divided by regional population; population estimates were based on 2014 census data. We used logistic regression analysis in Epi-Info version 7.2.0 to determine temporal trends. Population estimates were based on 2014 census data. We used QGIS software to draw choropleth maps showing leprosy case detection rates, assumed to approximate the new case detection rates, per 100,000 population. RESULTS: During 2012-2016, there was 7% annual decrease in reported leprosy cases in Uganda each year (p = 0.0001), largely driven by declines in the eastern (14%/year, p = 0.0008) and central (11%/year, p = 0.03) regions. Declines in reported cases in the western (9%/year, p = 0.12) and northern (4%/year, p = 0.16) regions were not significant. The combined new case detection rates from 2012 to 2016 for the ten most-affected districts showed that 70% were from the northern region, 20% from the eastern, 10% from the western and 10% from the central regions. CONCLUSION: There was a decreasing trend in leprosy new case detection in Uganda during 2012-2016; however, the declining trends were not consistent in all regions. The Northern region consistently identified more leprosy cases compared to the other regions. We recommend evaluation of the leprosy surveillance system to ascertain the leprosy situation.